Club Queretaro 2–3 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Club Queretaro

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Santos Laguna

J. Dos Santos 61' (pen)

B. Olivera 55'

D. Valdés 87'

E. Preciado 28', 4'

10/30/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio La Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Club Queretaro40%

×Draw23%

Santos Laguna37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.62

Club Queretaro

1.71

Santos Laguna

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.46

creates per match

1.61

1.63

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.46

Santos Laguna

1.61

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.63

Santos Laguna

1.95

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Club Queretaro-0.60scores less

Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

63%

Club Queretaro or Santos Laguna

77%

Draw or Santos Laguna

60%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

21%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

82%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

51%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

24%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

80%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

48%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

52%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 7 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.46 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.71

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + Club Queretaro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

40%

level

23%

Santos Laguna scores more

37%

Club Queretaro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

E. Preciado

Santos Laguna · M

8.6

Match Events

4'

E. Preciado↳ D. Valdés

28'

E. Preciado↳ D. Valdés

30'

Omar Campos

40'

N. Sosa← K. Escamilla

43'

Maximiliano Perg

55'

B. Olivera

61'

J. Dos SantosPenalty

65'

E. Orrantía← J. Isijara

69'

Kevin Ramírez

71'

A. Hernández← E. Vera

71'

J. Montero← P. Barrera

74'

H. Rodríguez← E. Preciado

79'

I. Jeraldino← Eduardo Aguirre

79'

J. Ocejo← F. Otero

85'

Maximiliano Perg

85'

Maximiliano Perg

86'

J. Doldán← B. Olivera

87'

D. Cabrera← K. Ramírez

87'

90+3'

90+2'

90+5'

90+4'

Hugo RodriguezCard upgrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubSantos

Overview

51%Possession49%

18Total Shots16

7Corners8

18Fouls19

Shots

18Total Shots16

5On Target8

7Off Target5

6Blocked3

8Inside Box10

10Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

272Total Passes270

169Accurate Passes179

62%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls19

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1