Club Queretaro vs Necaxa: Preview & Prediction

Club Queretaro

Preview

01:00

Necaxa

11/23/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 17Estadio La Corregidora

Big match

43%

Club Queretaro

model favours

43%26%32%

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Club Queretaro43%

×Draw26%

Necaxa32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchNecaxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.22

Club Queretaro

1.46

Necaxa

1.22

Club Queretaro creates 20% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 139 away

1.20

creates per match

1.27

1.17

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.20

Necaxa

1.27

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.17

Necaxa

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Necaxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

68%

Club Queretaro or Necaxa

74%

Draw or Necaxa

57%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

21%

Necaxa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

77%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

43%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

18%

Necaxa 1+ goals

70%

Necaxa 2+ goals

34%

Necaxa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

57%

Necaxa (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.20 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Club Queretaro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

43%

level

26%

Necaxa scores more

32%

Club Queretaro at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Style contrast — Club Queretaro play Direct / counter-attacking, Necaxa Defensively solid
Club Queretaro fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.