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Club Queretaro vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
4/11/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 14Estadio La Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Club Queretaro43%
×Draw26%
Necaxa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Queretaro
1.46
Necaxa
1.21

Club Queretaro creates 21% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 140 away

creates per match

Club Queretaro
1.22
Necaxa
1.26

allows per match

Club Queretaro
1.17
Necaxa
1.70

finishing

Club Queretaro+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw
69%
Club Queretaro or Necaxa
74%
Draw or Necaxa
57%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+
21%
Necaxa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals
77%
Club Queretaro 2+ goals
43%
Club Queretaro 3+ goals
18%
Necaxa 1+ goals
70%
Necaxa 2+ goals
34%
Necaxa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)
58%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.22 + Necaxa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Necaxa attack 1.26 + Club Queretaro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Club Queretaro scores more
43%
level
26%
Necaxa scores more
31%

Club Queretaro at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Queretaro vs Necaxa

Club Queretaro beat Necaxa 3-1 in Liga MX on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio La Corregidora in Santiago de Queretaro.