Club Queretaro 2–0 Mazatlán: Result & Stats

Club Queretaro

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mazatlán

A. Sepúlveda 90+3'

K. Escamilla 59'

2/19/2022

Liga MX · Clausura - 6Estadio La Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Club Queretaro47%

×Draw24%

Mazatlán29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchMazatlán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.30

Club Queretaro

1.72

Mazatlán

1.30

Club Queretaro creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.46

creates per match

0.97

1.63

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.46

Mazatlán

0.97

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.63

Mazatlán

1.98

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

-0.77scores less than expected

finishing

Club Queretaro-0.60scores less

Mazatlán-0.77scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Mazatlán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

71%

Club Queretaro or Mazatlán

76%

Draw or Mazatlán

53%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

25%

Mazatlán wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

82%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

51%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

25%

Mazatlán 1+ goals

73%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

37%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

62%

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 7 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.98 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.46 + Mazatlán defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.72

Mazatlán attack 0.97 + Club Queretaro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

47%

level

24%

Mazatlán scores more

29%

Club Queretaro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Enzo Martínez

Club Queretaro · D

7.9

Match Events

12'

Jorge Hernández

20'

Roberto Meraz

39'

Ygor Nogueira

44'

J. Montero← L. Sequeira

46'

M. Fabián← M. Sansores

58'

Nicolás Benedetti

59'

K. Escamilla

61'

J. Godínez← J. Angulo

61'

J. Romagnoli← K. Escamilla

61'

B. Colula← N. Benedetti

74'

R. Sandoval← N. Díaz

74'

J. Zárate← R. Meraz

74'

B. Rubio← C. Vargas

86'

D. Cabrera← J. Montero

87'

A. Hernández← É. Vera

90+3'

Ángel Sepúlveda

90+3'

A. Sepúlveda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubMazatlán

Overview

58%Possession42%

10Total Shots8

8Corners3

10Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots8

3On Target3

5Off Target1

2Blocked4

7Inside Box4

3Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

404Total Passes295

311Accurate Passes227

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

Liga MX: Club Queretaro 2–0 Mazatlán

Club Queretaro beat Mazatlán 2-0 in Liga MX on February 19, 2022.

Goals: K. Escamilla (59'), A. Sepúlveda (90+3').

Club Queretaro controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio La Corregidora in Santiago de Querétaro.

Club Queretaro vs Mazatlán — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: Club Queretaro 2–0 Mazatlán