Club Queretaro vs Leon — Liga MX 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 134+ matches
Club Queretaro40%
Leon34%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Club Queretaro creates 11% more chances
Season form · 134 home / 145 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Club Queretaro ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches
Leon away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.48 · 145 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Club Queretaro attack 1.20 + Leon defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34
Leon attack 1.26 + Club Queretaro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Club Queretaro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Leon
Tigres UANL
Monterrey
Cruz Azul
Club America
Necaxa
Pachuca
Club Tijuana
Toluca
Puebla
Santos Laguna
Lobos Buap
Atlas
Guadalajara Chivas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
MonarcasClub Queretaro
VeracruzCruz AzulClub AmericaU.N.A.M. - PumasSantos LagunaMonterreyTigres UANLTolucaClub QueretaroMonarcasPachucaGuadalajara ChivasPueblaLobos BuapLeonClub TijuanaNecaxaAtlasVeracruzIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Club Queretaro host Leon on Saturday, 30 September 2023 at 01:00. The match is part of the Liga MX 2026/2027 season.
Liga MX: Club Queretaro 1–1 Leon
Club Queretaro and Leon drew 1-1 in Liga MX on September 30, 2023.
The match was played at Estadio Corregidora in Santiago de Querétaro.