Club Queretaro vs Guadalajara Chivas

Club Queretaro

CANC

00:00

Guadalajara Chivas

3/23/2020

Liga MX · Clausura - 11Estadio La Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Club Queretaro34%

×Draw24%

Guadalajara Chivas42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara Chivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.57

Club Queretaro

1.39

Guadalajara Chivas

1.57

Guadalajara Chivas creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.46

creates per match

1.51

1.63

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.46

Guadalajara Chivas

1.51

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.63

Guadalajara Chivas

1.31

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Club Queretaro-0.60scores less

Guadalajara Chivas+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

58%

Club Queretaro or Guadalajara Chivas

76%

Draw or Guadalajara Chivas

66%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

15%

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

75%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

40%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

16%

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

79%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

46%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

45%

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 7 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.31 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.46 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.51 + Club Queretaro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

34%

level

24%

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

42%

Guadalajara Chivas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff