Club Queretaro 1–2 FC Juarez: Result & Stats

Club Queretaro

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

FC Juarez

11/2/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Club Queretaro48%

×Draw26%

FC Juarez27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchFC Juarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.05

Club Queretaro

1.50

FC Juarez

1.05

Club Queretaro creates 43% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 119 away

1.22

creates per match

0.94

1.17

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.22

FC Juarez

0.94

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.17

FC Juarez

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

FC Juarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

73%

Club Queretaro or FC Juarez

74%

Draw or FC Juarez

52%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

24%

FC Juarez wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

78%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

44%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

19%

FC Juarez 1+ goals

65%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

28%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

64%

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.77 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.22 + FC Juarez defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

FC Juarez attack 0.94 + Club Queretaro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

48%

level

26%

FC Juarez scores more

27%

Club Queretaro at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff