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Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul — Liga MX 2026

Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
Preview
01:00
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
10/26/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio La Corregidora
Big match
48%
Cruz Azul
model favours
28%24%48%

Cruz Azul are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Club Queretaro28%
×Draw24%
Cruz Azul48%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Queretaro
1.27
Cruz Azul
1.73

Cruz Azul creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Club Queretaro
1.76
Cruz Azul
1.64

allows per match

Club Queretaro
1.82
Cruz Azul
0.79

finishing

Club Queretaro-0.76scores less
Cruz Azul+0.14scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw
52%
Club Queretaro or Cruz Azul
76%
Draw or Cruz Azul
72%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+
12%
Cruz Azul wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals
72%
Club Queretaro 2+ goals
36%
Club Queretaro 3+ goals
14%
Cruz Azul 1+ goals
82%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
52%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)
37%
Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.82 · 5 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.79 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.76 + Cruz Azul defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cruz Azul attack 1.64 + Club Queretaro defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Club Queretaro scores more
28%
level
24%
Cruz Azul scores more
48%

Cruz Azul at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Cruz Azul score first in only 21% of matches
  • Both teams score in 79% of Cruz Azul’s matches
  • Style contrast — Club Queretaro play Direct / counter-attacking, Cruz Azul Possession-dominant
  • Club Queretaro fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Club Queretaro
Direct / counter-attacking
Cruz Azul
Possession-dominant
35%Possession58%
72%Pass accuracy84%
9.5ShotsBiggest gap17.6
1.37xG1.68
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Club QueretaroCruz Azul

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Club Queretaro
3
Draws
6
Cruz Azul
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 60%
1–12–20–10–21–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Queretaro
LWDWW
Azul
WDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul — Match Preview

Club Queretaro face Cruz Azul on October 26, 2026 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Club Queretaro host Cruz Azul at Estadio La Corregidora.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.