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Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul — Liga MX 2026

Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
2/3/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 5Estadio Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Club Queretaro36%
×Draw27%
Cruz Azul37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Queretaro
1.22
Cruz Azul
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 157 away

creates per match

Club Queretaro
1.22
Cruz Azul
1.32

allows per match

Club Queretaro
1.17
Cruz Azul
1.22

finishing

Club Queretaro+0.00on par
Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw
63%
Club Queretaro or Cruz Azul
73%
Draw or Cruz Azul
64%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+
15%
Cruz Azul wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals
70%
Club Queretaro 2+ goals
34%
Club Queretaro 3+ goals
12%
Cruz Azul 1+ goals
71%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
36%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)
49%
Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.22 + Cruz Azul defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Cruz Azul attack 1.32 + Club Queretaro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Club Queretaro scores more
36%
level
27%
Cruz Azul scores more
37%

Cruz Azul at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Club Queretaro 1–3 Cruz Azul

Cruz Azul beat Club Queretaro 3-1 in Liga MX on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Corregidora in Santiago de Querétaro.