Club Nacional 4–0 Fenix: Result & Stats

Club Nacional

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Fenix

I. Ramírez 90+2', 36' (pen), 18'

F. Noguera 16'

4/14/2023

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 11Estadio Gran Parque Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Club Nacional56%

×Draw24%

Fenix21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club NacionalExpected goals in this matchFenix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.94

Club Nacional

1.72

Fenix

0.94

Club Nacional creates 83% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 66 away

2.07

creates per match

1.20

0.69

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Club Nacional

2.07

Fenix

1.20

allows per match

Club Nacional

0.69

Fenix

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Fenix+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Nacional ↓

Fenix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Club Nacional or draw

79%

Club Nacional or Fenix

76%

Draw or Fenix

44%

Winning margin

Club Nacional wins by 2+

31%

Fenix wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Club Nacional 1+ goals

82%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

51%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

25%

Fenix 1+ goals

61%

Fenix 2+ goals

24%

Fenix 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

73%

Fenix (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Nacional at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.69 · 87 matches

Fenix away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.38 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Nacional attack 2.07 + Fenix defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.72

Fenix attack 1.20 + Club Nacional defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Club Nacional scores more

56%

level

24%

Fenix scores more

21%

Club Nacional at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Club Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

L. Morales← L. Lozano

12'

J. O'Neill← S. Franca

16'

F. Noguera

18'

I. Ramírez

36'

I. RamírezPenalty

45+4'

Federico Martínez

46'

S. Marcel← R. Núñez

46'

I. Sosa← G. Vega

50'

Juan Ignacio Ramírez

50'

Agustin Da Silveira Munoa

60'

A. Trezza← F. Martínez

60'

D. Polenta← F. Noguera

60'

M. Monzeglio← G. Pereiro

62'

Camilo Cándido

65'

C. Almeida← C. Cándido

73'

M. Ferreira← A. Ocampo

76'

Guillermo Pereira

79'

Emanuel Carlos

82'

M. Nichele← E. Carlos

90+2'

I. Ramírez

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ClubFenix

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots2

4Corners4

9Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots2

5On Target2

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls7

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0