Club Nacional 0–1 Bahia: Result & Stats

Club Nacional

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bahia

Erick Pulga 64'

4/9/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Gran Parque Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Club Nacional39%

×Draw37%

Bahia24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club NacionalExpected goals in this matchBahia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

0.60

Club Nacional

0.84

Bahia

0.60

Club Nacional creates 40% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

0.86

creates per match

0.50

0.71

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Club Nacional

0.86

Bahia

0.50

allows per match

Club Nacional

0.71

Bahia

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Bahia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under82
Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Nacional ↓

Bahia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–024%

0–114%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

76%24%1.5

42%58%2.5

18%82%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Club Nacional or draw

76%

Club Nacional or Bahia

63%

Draw or Bahia

61%

Winning margin

Club Nacional wins by 2+

13%

Bahia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Club Nacional 1+ goals

57%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

21%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

5%

Bahia 1+ goals

45%

Bahia 2+ goals

12%

Bahia 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

61%

Bahia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Nacional at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Bahia away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Nacional attack 0.86 + Bahia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Bahia attack 0.50 + Club Nacional defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club Nacional scores more

39%

level

37%

Bahia scores more

24%

Club Nacional at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Club Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

96

Ronaldo Strada

Bahia · G

7.6

Match Events

11'

Jean Lucas

45+1'

Erick

57'

Y. Rodriguez← L. Boggio

57'

N. Lopez← Eduardo Vargas

64'

Caio Alexandre← Everton Ribeiro

64'

Willian Jose← L. Rodriguez

64'

Erick Pulga

71'

J. Recoba← R. Otero

72'

L. M. Villalba Jaume← G. Baez Corradi

75'

76'

79'

81'

82'

82'

Kayky← Cauly

90+6'

Paolo Calione

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubBahia

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots11

0.36Expected Goals (xG)0.42

6Corners3

15Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots11

5On Target2

6Off Target4

2Blocked5

4Inside Box6

9Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

355Total Passes473

284Accurate Passes402

80%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

0.78Goals Prevented0.78

Discipline

15Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1