Club Guarani 2–1 Universidad de Chile

Club Guarani

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Universidad de Chile

R. Torales 89', 84'

L. Assadi 17'

7/24/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Knockout Round Play-offsEstadio Rogelio Silvino Livieres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Club Guarani45%

×Draw28%

Universidad de Chile27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club GuaraniExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.95

Club Guarani

1.30

Universidad de Chile

0.95

Club Guarani creates 37% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.60

creates per match

0.50

1.40

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Club Guarani

1.60

Universidad de Chile

0.50

allows per match

Club Guarani

1.40

Universidad de Chile

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Guarani ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Club Guarani or draw

73%

Club Guarani or Universidad de Chile

72%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

55%

Winning margin

Club Guarani wins by 2+

20%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Club Guarani 1+ goals

73%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

37%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

14%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

61%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

25%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

62%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Guarani at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Guarani attack 1.60 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Universidad de Chile attack 0.50 + Club Guarani defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Club Guarani scores more

45%

level

28%

Universidad de Chile scores more

27%

Club Guarani at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

R. Torales

Universidad de Chile

8.3

Match Events

17'

L. Assadi↳ L. Di Yorio

33'

F. Moya← C. Aranguiz

34'

F. J. Roman Torales← J. Patino Martinez

40'

Paul Riveros

46'

I. E. Poblete Zuniga← J. Altamirano

46'

D. Retamal← F. Hormazabal

46'

A. J. Benitez Cabrera← P. Riveros

46'

I. Ramirez← W. Mendieta

55'

N. Guerra← L. Assadi

62'

A. Maidana← V. Cespedes

69'

R. Contreras← L. Di Yorio

84'

R. Torales↳ A. J. Benitez Cabrera

85'

F. Fernandez← A. Manzur

89'

R. Torales↳ L. Martinez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubUniversidad

Overview

45%Possession55%

18Total Shots11

7Corners4

12Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots11

5On Target5

7Off Target5

6Blocked1

8Inside Box6

10Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

359Total Passes456

284Accurate Passes366

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Club Guarani 2–1 Universidad de Chile

Club Guarani beat Universidad de Chile 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 24, 2025.

Goals: L. Assadi (17'), R. Torales (84', 89').

Universidad de Chile controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Rogelio Silvino Livieres in Asuncion.

Club Guarani vs Universidad de Chile — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Club Guarani 2–1 Universidad de Chile