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Club Guarani vs Sportivo Trinidense — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Club Guarani
Club Guarani
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
3/18/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 10Estadio Rogelio Silvino Livieres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Club Guarani37%
×Draw26%
Sportivo Trinidense37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Guarani
1.34
Sportivo Trinidense
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 44 away

creates per match

Club Guarani
1.34
Sportivo Trinidense
1.39

allows per match

Club Guarani
1.31
Sportivo Trinidense
1.34

finishing

Club Guarani+0.00on par
Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Guarani ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Club Guarani or draw
63%
Club Guarani or Sportivo Trinidense
74%
Draw or Sportivo Trinidense
63%

Winning margin

Club Guarani wins by 2+
17%
Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Club Guarani 1+ goals
74%
Club Guarani 2+ goals
39%
Club Guarani 3+ goals
15%
Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
74%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
39%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Club Guarani (draw refunded)
50%
Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Guarani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 98 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Guarani attack 1.34 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.39 + Club Guarani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Club Guarani scores more
37%
level
26%
Sportivo Trinidense scores more
37%

Club Guarani at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Club Guarani 1–2 Sportivo Trinidense

Sportivo Trinidense beat Club Guarani 2-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rogelio Silvino Livieres in Asunción.