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Club Guarani vs SOL DE America — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Club Guarani
Club Guarani
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
SOL DE America
SOL DE America
5/2/2021Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 14Estadio Rogelio Lorenzo Livieres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Club Guarani46%
×Draw24%
SOL DE America29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Guarani
1.63
SOL DE America
1.25

Club Guarani creates 30% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 64 away

creates per match

Club Guarani
1.34
SOL DE America
1.20

allows per match

Club Guarani
1.31
SOL DE America
1.91

finishing

Club Guarani+0.00on par
SOL DE America+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Guarani ↓

SOL DE America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Club Guarani or draw
71%
Club Guarani or SOL DE America
76%
Draw or SOL DE America
54%

Winning margin

Club Guarani wins by 2+
24%
SOL DE America wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Club Guarani 1+ goals
80%
Club Guarani 2+ goals
48%
Club Guarani 3+ goals
22%
SOL DE America 1+ goals
71%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
36%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Club Guarani (draw refunded)
61%
SOL DE America (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Guarani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 98 matches

SOL DE America away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Guarani attack 1.34 + SOL DE America defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.63

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + Club Guarani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Club Guarani scores more
46%
level
24%
SOL DE America scores more
29%

Club Guarani at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Guarani vs SOL DE America

Club Guarani beat SOL DE America 2-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Rogelio Lorenzo Livieres in Asunción.