Club Guarani 2–2 General Diaz: Result & Stats

Club Guarani

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

General Diaz

5/13/2018

Division Profesional - Apertura · Round 17Estadio Rogelio Lorenzo Livieres (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Club Guarani51%

×Draw23%

General Diaz26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club GuaraniExpected goals in this matchGeneral Diaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.22

Club Guarani

1.81

General Diaz

1.22

Club Guarani creates 48% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 33 away

1.34

creates per match

1.12

1.31

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Club Guarani

1.34

General Diaz

1.12

allows per match

Club Guarani

1.31

General Diaz

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Guarani+0.00on par

General Diaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Guarani ↓

General Diaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Club Guarani or draw

74%

Club Guarani or General Diaz

77%

Draw or General Diaz

49%

Winning margin

Club Guarani wins by 2+

28%

General Diaz wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Club Guarani 1+ goals

84%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

54%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

27%

General Diaz 1+ goals

70%

General Diaz 2+ goals

34%

General Diaz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

66%

General Diaz (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Guarani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 98 matches

General Diaz away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Guarani attack 1.34 + General Diaz defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.81

General Diaz attack 1.12 + Club Guarani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Club Guarani scores more

51%

level

23%

General Diaz scores more

26%

Club Guarani at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff