Club Destroyers 1–0 Sport Boys: Result & Stats

Club Destroyers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Boys

10/6/2019

Primera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas (Santa Cruz de la Sierra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Club Destroyers51%

×Draw24%

Sport Boys25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club DestroyersExpected goals in this matchSport Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.13

Club Destroyers

1.70

Sport Boys

1.13

Club Destroyers creates 50% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

1.15

creates per match

0.88

1.38

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Club Destroyers

1.15

Sport Boys

0.88

allows per match

Club Destroyers

1.38

Sport Boys

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Destroyers+0.00on par

Sport Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Destroyers ↓

Sport Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Club Destroyers or draw

75%

Club Destroyers or Sport Boys

76%

Draw or Sport Boys

49%

Winning margin

Club Destroyers wins by 2+

27%

Sport Boys wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Club Destroyers 1+ goals

82%

Club Destroyers 2+ goals

51%

Club Destroyers 3+ goals

24%

Sport Boys 1+ goals

68%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

31%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Club Destroyers (draw refunded)

67%

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Destroyers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Destroyers attack 1.15 + Sport Boys defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sport Boys attack 0.88 + Club Destroyers defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Club Destroyers scores more

51%

level

24%

Sport Boys scores more

25%

Club Destroyers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Club Destroyers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff