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Club Destroyers vs Bolívar — Primera División 2019

Club Destroyers
Club Destroyers
FT
3 – 6
HT: 2 – 3
Bolívar
Bolívar
4/4/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 15Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas (Santa Cruz de la Sierra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Club Destroyers28%
×Draw24%
Bolívar48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Destroyers
1.24
Bolívar
1.69

Bolívar creates 36% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 135 away

creates per match

Club Destroyers
1.15
Bolívar
2.01

allows per match

Club Destroyers
1.38
Bolívar
1.33

finishing

Club Destroyers+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Destroyers ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Club Destroyers or draw
52%
Club Destroyers or Bolívar
76%
Draw or Bolívar
72%

Winning margin

Club Destroyers wins by 2+
12%
Bolívar wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Club Destroyers 1+ goals
71%
Club Destroyers 2+ goals
35%
Club Destroyers 3+ goals
13%
Bolívar 1+ goals
82%
Bolívar 2+ goals
50%
Bolívar 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Club Destroyers (draw refunded)
37%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Destroyers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Bolívar away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Destroyers attack 1.15 + Bolívar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Bolívar attack 2.01 + Club Destroyers defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Club Destroyers scores more
28%
level
24%
Bolívar scores more
48%

Bolívar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Club Destroyers 3–6 Bolívar

Bolívar beat Club Destroyers 6-3 in Primera División on April 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas (Santa Cruz de la Sierra).