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Club Destroyers vs Always Ready — Primera División 2019

Club Destroyers
Club Destroyers
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Always Ready
Always Ready
12/11/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 21Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas (Santa Cruz de la Sierra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Club Destroyers35%
×Draw25%
Always Ready40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Destroyers
1.33
Always Ready
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 129 away

creates per match

Club Destroyers
1.15
Always Ready
1.50

allows per match

Club Destroyers
1.38
Always Ready
1.51

finishing

Club Destroyers+0.00on par
Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Destroyers ↓

Always Ready →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Club Destroyers or draw
60%
Club Destroyers or Always Ready
75%
Draw or Always Ready
65%

Winning margin

Club Destroyers wins by 2+
15%
Always Ready wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Club Destroyers 1+ goals
74%
Club Destroyers 2+ goals
38%
Club Destroyers 3+ goals
15%
Always Ready 1+ goals
76%
Always Ready 2+ goals
42%
Always Ready 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Club Destroyers (draw refunded)
47%
Always Ready (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Destroyers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Always Ready away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.51 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Destroyers attack 1.15 + Always Ready defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Always Ready attack 1.50 + Club Destroyers defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Club Destroyers scores more
35%
level
25%
Always Ready scores more
40%

Always Ready at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Club Destroyers 1 – 3 Always Ready

Always Ready beat Club Destroyers 3-1 in Primera División on December 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas (Santa Cruz de la Sierra).