Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2–2 Union Huaral

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Union Huaral

8/12/2021

Segunda División · Clausura - 3Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas56%

×Draw22%

Union Huaral22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Deportivo Los ChankasExpected goals in this matchUnion Huaral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.16

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.96

Union Huaral

1.16

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 69% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 66 away

2.27

creates per match

1.32

0.99

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

2.27

Union Huaral

1.32

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.99

Union Huaral

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Union Huaral →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw

78%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Union Huaral

78%

Draw or Union Huaral

44%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

33%

Union Huaral wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

86%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

58%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

31%

Union Huaral 1+ goals

69%

Union Huaral 2+ goals

32%

Union Huaral 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

71%

Union Huaral (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.99 · 67 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 2.27 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.96

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

56%

level

22%

Union Huaral scores more

22%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff