Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1–0 UCV Moquegua

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

UCV Moquegua

O. Takeuchi 45'

5/17/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 15Estadio Municipal Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas61%

×Draw23%

UCV Moquegua15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Deportivo Los ChankasExpected goals in this matchUCV Moquegua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.71

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.71

UCV Moquegua

0.71

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 141% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 9 away

1.74

creates per match

0.44

0.98

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.74

UCV Moquegua

0.44

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.98

UCV Moquegua

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

UCV Moquegua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw

85%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or UCV Moquegua

77%

Draw or UCV Moquegua

39%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

35%

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

82%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

51%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

24%

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals

51%

UCV Moquegua 2+ goals

16%

UCV Moquegua 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

80%

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

UCV Moquegua away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.74 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

UCV Moquegua attack 0.44 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

61%

level

23%

UCV Moquegua scores more

15%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

O. Takeuchi

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · M

8.2

Match Events

40'

Jorge Palomino

45'

O. Takeuchi↳ A. Quiroz

52'

Adrián Quiroz

58'

R. Torres← A. Davila

58'

N. Chavez← E. Montenegro

58'

Bryan Angulo← D. Ramirez

64'

B. Guevara← A. Quintana

64'

K. Sanchez← J. Palomino

64'

A. Ayarza← J. Quintero

67'

Claudio Ramírez

68'

Franco Torres

79'

Carlos Pimienta

79'

Carlos PimientaCard upgrade

82'

C. Velarde← A. Quiroz

82'

M. Kaufman← F. Torres

82'

M. Negron← A. Perleche

87'

Juan Diego Lojas

90+6'

M. Panizo← N. Amasifuen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubUCV

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots14

1.27Expected Goals (xG)0.51

5Corners6

9Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots14

3On Target2

8Off Target7

5Blocked5

8Inside Box3

8Outside Box11

Passing

56%Possession44%

370Total Passes273

293Accurate Passes202

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0