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Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Sport Victoria — Segunda División 2018

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
4/15/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio Monumental Condebamba (Abancay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas72%
×Draw17%
Sport Victoria11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2.29
Sport Victoria
0.76

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 201% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 25 away

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2.27
Sport Victoria
0.52

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0.99
Sport Victoria
2.32

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par
Sport Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Sport Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw
89%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Sport Victoria
83%
Draw or Sport Victoria
28%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+
48%
Sport Victoria wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals
90%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals
66%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals
40%
Sport Victoria 1+ goals
53%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
18%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)
87%
Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.99 · 67 matches

Sport Victoria away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 2.27 + Sport Victoria defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.29

Sport Victoria attack 0.52 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more
72%
level
17%
Sport Victoria scores more
11%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1–0 Sport Victoria

Club Deportivo Los Chankas beat Sport Victoria 1-0 in Segunda División on April 15, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Condebamba (Abancay).