Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Juan Pablo II College

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juan Pablo II College

P. Bueno 40'

10/18/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Municipal Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas64%

×Draw21%

Juan Pablo II College16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Deportivo Los ChankasExpected goals in this matchJuan Pablo II College

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.88

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

2.02

Juan Pablo II College

0.88

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 130% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 26 away

1.74

creates per match

0.77

0.98

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.74

Juan Pablo II College

0.77

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.98

Juan Pablo II College

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Juan Pablo II College+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Juan Pablo II College →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw

84%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Juan Pablo II College

79%

Draw or Juan Pablo II College

36%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

39%

Juan Pablo II College wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

87%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

60%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

33%

Juan Pablo II College 1+ goals

59%

Juan Pablo II College 2+ goals

22%

Juan Pablo II College 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

80%

Juan Pablo II College (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

Juan Pablo II College away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.74 + Juan Pablo II College defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.02

Juan Pablo II College attack 0.77 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

64%

level

21%

Juan Pablo II College scores more

16%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

A. Quintana

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · D

8.2

Match Events

12'

Jhon Vega

32'

Ederson Mogollón

40'

P. Bueno↳ A. Quintana

46'

F. Agurto← J. Canova

61'

M. Affonso← R. Aliaga

61'

C. Ramirez← J. Vega

63'

J. Manzaneda← F. Torres

63'

I. Camargo← P. Bueno

63'

J. Palomino← K. Sanchez

63'

D. Gonzales← E. Mogollon

81'

M. Rasmussen← A. Rojas

81'

N. Rodriguez← R. Fernandez

90+2'

Isaac Camargo

90+1'

Jorge Palomino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubJuan

Overview

48%Possession52%

19Total Shots11

1.03Expected Goals (xG)1.40

6Corners11

19Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots11

4On Target4

10Off Target5

5Blocked2

6Inside Box6

13Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

346Total Passes379

279Accurate Passes299

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1 – 0 Juan Pablo II College

Club Deportivo Los Chankas beat Juan Pablo II College 1-0 in Primera División on October 18, 2025.

Goals: P. Bueno (40').

Juan Pablo II College controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Los Chankas in Andahuaylas.

Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Juan Pablo II College — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1 – 0 Juan Pablo II College