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Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Deportivo Hualgayoc — Segunda División 2018

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Hualgayoc
Deportivo Hualgayoc
5/13/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 6Estadio Monumental Condebamba (Abancay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas56%
×Draw21%
Deportivo Hualgayoc22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2.03
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.21

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 68% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 14 away

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2.27
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.43

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0.99
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.79

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par
Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Deportivo Hualgayoc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw
78%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Deportivo Hualgayoc
79%
Draw or Deportivo Hualgayoc
44%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+
33%
Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals
87%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals
60%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals
33%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)
71%
Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.99 · 67 matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 2.27 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.03

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 1.43 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more
56%
level
21%
Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more
22%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0–2 Deportivo Hualgayoc

Deportivo Hualgayoc beat Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2-0 in Segunda División on May 13, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Condebamba (Abancay).