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Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alfonso Ugarte Puno — Segunda División 2018

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
5/22/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 8Estadio Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas65%
×Draw19%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2.21
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
0.97

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 128% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 25 away

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2.27
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
0.96

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0.99
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
2.16

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par
Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Alfonso Ugarte Puno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw
85%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Alfonso Ugarte Puno
81%
Draw or Alfonso Ugarte Puno
35%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+
42%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals
89%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals
65%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals
38%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals
62%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals
25%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)
81%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.99 · 67 matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 2.27 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.21

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 0.96 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more
65%
level
19%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more
15%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3–0 Alfonso Ugarte Puno

Club Deportivo Los Chankas beat Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3-0 in Segunda División on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Los Chankas in Andahuaylas.