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Club Brugge W vs White Star Woluwe W — Super League Women 2018

Club Brugge W
Club Brugge W
FT
3 – 1
White Star Woluwe W
White Star Woluwe W
11/20/2021Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 11Gemeentelijk Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Club Brugge W64%
×Draw18%
White Star Woluwe W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Brugge W
2.52
White Star Woluwe W
1.25

Club Brugge W creates 102% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 52 away

creates per match

Club Brugge W
1.89
White Star Woluwe W
0.88

allows per match

Club Brugge W
1.62
White Star Woluwe W
3.15

finishing

Club Brugge W+0.00on par
White Star Woluwe W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge W ↓

White Star Woluwe W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Club Brugge W or draw
83%
Club Brugge W or White Star Woluwe W
82%
Draw or White Star Woluwe W
36%

Winning margin

Club Brugge W wins by 2+
43%
White Star Woluwe W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Club Brugge W 1+ goals
92%
Club Brugge W 2+ goals
71%
Club Brugge W 3+ goals
45%
White Star Woluwe W 1+ goals
71%
White Star Woluwe W 2+ goals
36%
White Star Woluwe W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge W (draw refunded)
79%
White Star Woluwe W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge W at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.62 · 92 matches

White Star Woluwe W away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge W attack 1.89 + White Star Woluwe W defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.52

White Star Woluwe W attack 0.88 + Club Brugge W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Club Brugge W scores more
64%
level
18%
White Star Woluwe W scores more
17%

Club Brugge W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Club Brugge W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Brugge W vs White Star Woluwe W

Club Brugge W beat White Star Woluwe W 3-1 in Super League Women on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Gemeentelijk Sportcentrum in Aalter.