Club Brugge W 4–2 Standard Liege W: Result & Stats

Club Brugge W

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Standard Liege W

12/13/2025

Super League Women · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Club Brugge W38%

×Draw23%

Standard Liege W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Brugge WExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.69

Club Brugge W

1.65

Standard Liege W

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 103 away

1.89

creates per match

1.76

1.62

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Club Brugge W

1.89

Standard Liege W

1.76

allows per match

Club Brugge W

1.62

Standard Liege W

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Brugge W+0.00on par

Standard Liege W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge W ↓

Standard Liege W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Club Brugge W or draw

61%

Club Brugge W or Standard Liege W

77%

Draw or Standard Liege W

62%

Winning margin

Club Brugge W wins by 2+

19%

Standard Liege W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Club Brugge W 1+ goals

81%

Club Brugge W 2+ goals

49%

Club Brugge W 3+ goals

23%

Standard Liege W 1+ goals

82%

Standard Liege W 2+ goals

50%

Standard Liege W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge W (draw refunded)

49%

Standard Liege W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge W at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.62 · 92 matches

Standard Liege W away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge W attack 1.89 + Standard Liege W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.65

Standard Liege W attack 1.76 + Club Brugge W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club Brugge W scores more

38%

level

23%

Standard Liege W scores more

39%

Standard Liege W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Standard Liege W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff