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Club Brugge W vs Mechelen W — Super League Women 2018

Club Brugge W
Club Brugge W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mechelen W
Mechelen W
9/16/2023Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 4The NEST

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Club Brugge W60%
×Draw19%
Mechelen W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Brugge W
2.33
Mechelen W
1.31

Club Brugge W creates 78% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 26 away

creates per match

Club Brugge W
1.89
Mechelen W
1.00

allows per match

Club Brugge W
1.62
Mechelen W
2.77

finishing

Club Brugge W+0.00on par
Mechelen W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge W ↓

Mechelen W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Club Brugge W or draw
79%
Club Brugge W or Mechelen W
81%
Draw or Mechelen W
40%

Winning margin

Club Brugge W wins by 2+
38%
Mechelen W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Club Brugge W 1+ goals
90%
Club Brugge W 2+ goals
67%
Club Brugge W 3+ goals
41%
Mechelen W 1+ goals
73%
Mechelen W 2+ goals
38%
Mechelen W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge W (draw refunded)
74%
Mechelen W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge W at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.62 · 92 matches

Mechelen W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge W attack 1.89 + Mechelen W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.33

Mechelen W attack 1.00 + Club Brugge W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Club Brugge W scores more
60%
level
19%
Mechelen W scores more
21%

Club Brugge W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Club Brugge W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Brugge W vs Mechelen W

Club Brugge W beat Mechelen W 5-0 in Super League Women on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at The NEST in Roulers.