Club Brugge KV 2–1 Oostende: Result & Stats

Club Brugge KV

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Oostende

K. Diatta 49'

B. Dost 38'

Clinton Mata 14' (OG)

1/20/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 25Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Club Brugge KV64%

×Draw20%

Oostende16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Brugge KVExpected goals in this matchOostende

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

0.93

Club Brugge KV

2.07

Oostende

0.93

Club Brugge KV creates 123% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 83 away

2.28

creates per match

0.96

0.90

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Club Brugge KV

2.28

Oostende

0.96

allows per match

Club Brugge KV

0.90

Oostende

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Brugge KV+0.00on par

Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge KV ↓

Oostende →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Club Brugge KV or draw

84%

Club Brugge KV or Oostende

80%

Draw or Oostende

36%

Winning margin

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

39%

Oostende wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

87%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

61%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

34%

Oostende 1+ goals

61%

Oostende 2+ goals

24%

Oostende 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

80%

Oostende (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge KV at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.90 · 155 matches

Oostende away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge KV attack 2.28 + Oostende defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.07

Oostende attack 0.96 + Club Brugge KV defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Club Brugge KV scores more

64%

level

20%

Oostende scores more

16%

Club Brugge KV at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Clinton MataOwn goal

32'

38'

40'

49'

58'

R. D'Haese← J. Bataille

59'

S. Denswil← F. Ricca

68'

É. Balanta← R. Vormer

85'

I. Van der Brempt← K. Diatta

85'

M. Thiam← F. Sakala

86'

D. Okereke← N. Lang

87'

M. Kvasina← A. Skúlason

Statistics

ClubOostende

Overview

5Corners3

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0