Club Brugge KV 1–1 Fiorentina: Result & Stats

Club Brugge KV

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fiorentina

H. Vanaken 20'

L. Beltrán 85' (pen)

5/8/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · Semi-finalsJan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Club Brugge KV49%

×Draw24%

Fiorentina28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Brugge KVExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.26

Club Brugge KV

1.74

Fiorentina

1.26

Club Brugge KV creates 38% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

2.33

creates per match

1.85

0.67

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Club Brugge KV

2.33

Fiorentina

1.85

allows per match

Club Brugge KV

0.67

Fiorentina

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Brugge KV+0.00on par

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge KV ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Club Brugge KV or draw

72%

Club Brugge KV or Fiorentina

76%

Draw or Fiorentina

51%

Winning margin

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

26%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

82%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

52%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

25%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

72%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

36%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

64%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge KV at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge KV attack 2.33 + Fiorentina defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.74

Fiorentina attack 1.85 + Club Brugge KV defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Club Brugge KV scores more

49%

level

24%

Fiorentina scores more

28%

Club Brugge KV at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

H. Vanaken

Club Brugge KV · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

-5'

20'

43'

52'

62'

70'

P. Zinckernagel← H. Vetlesen

70'

M'Bala Nzola← A. Belotti

71'

A. Duncan← Arthur

72'

Denis Odoi

83'

Brandon Mechele

85'

L. BeltránPenalty

86'

A. Nusa← D. Odoi

86'

C. Nielsen← M. Skóraś

88'

90+5'

90+6'

90+4'

90'

L. Ranieri← L. Beltrán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubFiorentina

Overview

53%Possession47%

4Total Shots21

0.21Expected Goals (xG)2.52

3Corners7

12Fouls11

Shots

4Total Shots21

2On Target2

2Off Target13

0Blocked6

2Inside Box14

2Outside Box7

Passing

53%Possession47%

414Total Passes358

333Accurate Passes269

80%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls11

7Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0