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Club Brugge KV vs FC Lugano — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Club Brugge KV
Club Brugge KV
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
11/9/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 4Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Club Brugge KV63%
×Draw19%
FC Lugano17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Brugge KV
2.28
FC Lugano
1.11

Club Brugge KV creates 105% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Club Brugge KV
2.33
FC Lugano
1.56

allows per match

Club Brugge KV
0.67
FC Lugano
2.22

finishing

Club Brugge KV+0.00on par
FC Lugano+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge KV ↓

FC Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Club Brugge KV or draw
83%
Club Brugge KV or FC Lugano
81%
Draw or FC Lugano
37%

Winning margin

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+
41%
FC Lugano wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals
90%
Club Brugge KV 2+ goals
66%
Club Brugge KV 3+ goals
39%
FC Lugano 1+ goals
67%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
30%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)
78%
FC Lugano (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge KV at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge KV attack 2.33 + FC Lugano defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.28

FC Lugano attack 1.56 + Club Brugge KV defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Club Brugge KV scores more
63%
level
19%
FC Lugano scores more
17%

Club Brugge KV at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Club Brugge KV 2–0 FC Lugano

Club Brugge KV beat FC Lugano 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.