Club Brugge KV 0–1 Beerschot VA: Result & Stats

Club Brugge KV

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Beerschot VA

R. Holzhauser 28'

8/23/2020

Jupiler Pro League · Round 3Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Club Brugge KV64%

×Draw20%

Beerschot VA16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Brugge KVExpected goals in this matchBeerschot VA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.97

Club Brugge KV

2.12

Beerschot VA

0.97

Club Brugge KV creates 119% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 7 away

2.33

creates per match

0.77

1.18

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Club Brugge KV

2.33

Beerschot VA

0.77

allows per match

Club Brugge KV

1.18

Beerschot VA

1.91

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Club Brugge KV+0.33scores more

Beerschot VA+0.09on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge KV ↓

Beerschot VA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Club Brugge KV or draw

84%

Club Brugge KV or Beerschot VA

80%

Draw or Beerschot VA

36%

Winning margin

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

40%

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

88%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

62%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

35%

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

62%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

25%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

80%

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge KV at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge KV attack 2.33 + Beerschot VA defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.12

Beerschot VA attack 0.77 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Club Brugge KV scores more

64%

level

20%

Beerschot VA scores more

16%

Club Brugge KV at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

R. Holzhauser↳ M. Noubissi

59'

D. Okereke← K. Diatta

59'

B. Eleke← T. Tissoudali

61'

C. De Ketelaere← E. Sobol

71'

M. Krmenčík← S. Schrijvers

76'

Éder Balanta

83'

D. Van den Buijs← R. Holzhauser

90'

J. Van den Bergh← Y. Vorogovskiy

Statistics

ClubBeerschot

Overview

5Corners1

Discipline

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0