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Club Atlético Güemes vs CDJU Gualeguaychu — Torneo Federal A 2018

Club Atlético Güemes
Club Atlético Güemes
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CDJU Gualeguaychu
CDJU Gualeguaychu
3/3/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · North - 21Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda (Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Club Atlético Güemes60%
×Draw25%
CDJU Gualeguaychu15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Atlético Güemes
1.56
CDJU Gualeguaychu
0.62

Club Atlético Güemes creates 152% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

creates per match

Club Atlético Güemes
1.53
CDJU Gualeguaychu
0.71

allows per match

Club Atlético Güemes
0.53
CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.59

finishing

Club Atlético Güemes+0.00on par
CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Atlético Güemes ↓

CDJU Gualeguaychu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Club Atlético Güemes or draw
85%
Club Atlético Güemes or CDJU Gualeguaychu
75%
Draw or CDJU Gualeguaychu
40%

Winning margin

Club Atlético Güemes wins by 2+
32%
CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Club Atlético Güemes 1+ goals
79%
Club Atlético Güemes 2+ goals
46%
Club Atlético Güemes 3+ goals
21%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals
46%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals
13%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Club Atlético Güemes (draw refunded)
80%
CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Atlético Güemes at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Atlético Güemes attack 1.53 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 0.71 + Club Atlético Güemes defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Club Atlético Güemes scores more
60%
level
25%
CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more
15%

Club Atlético Güemes at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Club Atlético Güemes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Club Atlético Güemes 3–0 CDJU Gualeguaychu

Club Atlético Güemes beat CDJU Gualeguaychu 3-0 in Torneo Federal A on March 3, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda (Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero).