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Club Atlético Güemes vs Agropecuario — Primera Nacional 2026

Club Atlético Güemes
Club Atlético Güemes
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Agropecuario
Agropecuario
2/5/2023Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Group A - 1Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Club Atlético Güemes43%
×Draw31%
Agropecuario27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Atlético Güemes
1.13
Agropecuario
0.83

Club Atlético Güemes creates 36% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 126 away

creates per match

Club Atlético Güemes
0.98
Agropecuario
0.84

allows per match

Club Atlético Güemes
0.83
Agropecuario
1.27

finishing

Club Atlético Güemes+0.00on par
Agropecuario+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Atlético Güemes ↓

Agropecuario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Club Atlético Güemes or draw
73%
Club Atlético Güemes or Agropecuario
69%
Draw or Agropecuario
57%

Winning margin

Club Atlético Güemes wins by 2+
18%
Agropecuario wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Club Atlético Güemes 1+ goals
68%
Club Atlético Güemes 2+ goals
31%
Club Atlético Güemes 3+ goals
11%
Agropecuario 1+ goals
56%
Agropecuario 2+ goals
20%
Agropecuario 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Club Atlético Güemes (draw refunded)
61%
Agropecuario (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Atlético Güemes at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.83 · 100 matches

Agropecuario away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Atlético Güemes attack 0.98 + Agropecuario defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Agropecuario attack 0.84 + Club Atlético Güemes defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Club Atlético Güemes scores more
43%
level
31%
Agropecuario scores more
27%

Club Atlético Güemes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Club Atlético Güemes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Atlético Güemes vs Agropecuario

Agropecuario beat Club Atlético Güemes 1-0 in Primera Nacional on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda in Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero.