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Club Atletico Barinas vs Yaracuyanos FC — Segunda División 2018

Club Atletico Barinas
Club Atletico Barinas
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
Y. Osorio 45' (pen)
V. Viez 90', 85'
D. Garzon 47', 32' (pen)
4/12/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Club Atletico Barinas39%
×Draw22%
Yaracuyanos FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Atletico Barinas
1.81
Yaracuyanos FC
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 76 away

creates per match

Club Atletico Barinas
2.38
Yaracuyanos FC
1.45

allows per match

Club Atletico Barinas
2.13
Yaracuyanos FC
1.24

finishing

Club Atletico Barinas+0.00on par
Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Atletico Barinas ↓

Yaracuyanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Club Atletico Barinas or draw
61%
Club Atletico Barinas or Yaracuyanos FC
78%
Draw or Yaracuyanos FC
61%

Winning margin

Club Atletico Barinas wins by 2+
21%
Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Club Atletico Barinas 1+ goals
84%
Club Atletico Barinas 2+ goals
54%
Club Atletico Barinas 3+ goals
27%
Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
83%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
53%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Club Atletico Barinas (draw refunded)
51%
Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Atletico Barinas at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Yaracuyanos FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Atletico Barinas attack 2.38 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.81

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.45 + Club Atletico Barinas defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club Atletico Barinas scores more
39%
level
22%
Yaracuyanos FC scores more
39%

Club Atletico Barinas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Club Atletico Barinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
D. GarzonPenalty
45'
Y. OsorioPenalty
47'
D. Garzon
85'
V. Viez
90'
V. Viez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Club Atletico Barinas 1–4 Yaracuyanos FC

Yaracuyanos FC beat Club Atletico Barinas 4-1 in Segunda División on April 12, 2026.

Goals: D. Garzon (32' pen, 47'), Y. Osorio (45' pen), V. Viez (85', 90').