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Club America vs Veracruz — Liga MX 2018

Club America
Club America
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Veracruz
Veracruz
11/25/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 17Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Club America72%
×Draw17%
Veracruz10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club America
2.27
Veracruz
0.73

Club America creates 211% more chances

Season form · 162 home / 26 away

creates per match

Club America
1.89
Veracruz
0.58

allows per match

Club America
0.89
Veracruz
2.65

finishing

Club America+0.00on par
Veracruz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

Veracruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Club America or draw
90%
Club America or Veracruz
83%
Draw or Veracruz
28%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+
48%
Veracruz wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals
90%
Club America 2+ goals
66%
Club America 3+ goals
39%
Veracruz 1+ goals
52%
Veracruz 2+ goals
17%
Veracruz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)
87%
Veracruz (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 162 matches

Veracruz away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.89 + Veracruz defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.27

Veracruz attack 0.58 + Club America defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Club America scores more
72%
level
17%
Veracruz scores more
10%

Club America at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Club America 4–1 Veracruz

Club America beat Veracruz 4-1 in Liga MX on November 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.