Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Club America vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

Club America
Club America
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Puebla
Puebla
8/25/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 5Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Club America56%
×Draw23%
Puebla21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club America
1.77
Puebla
0.97

Club America creates 82% more chances

Season form · 160 home / 142 away

creates per match

Club America
1.89
Puebla
1.05

allows per match

Club America
0.89
Puebla
1.65

finishing

Club America+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Club America or draw
79%
Club America or Puebla
77%
Draw or Puebla
44%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+
32%
Puebla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals
83%
Club America 2+ goals
53%
Club America 3+ goals
26%
Puebla 1+ goals
62%
Puebla 2+ goals
25%
Puebla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)
73%
Puebla (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 160 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.65 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.89 + Puebla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.77

Puebla attack 1.05 + Club America defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Club America scores more
56%
level
23%
Puebla scores more
21%

Club America at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club America vs Puebla

Puebla beat Club America 1-0 in Liga MX on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes in D.F..