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Club America vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Club America
Club America
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
1/31/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 4Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Club America54%
×Draw23%
Necaxa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club America
1.79
Necaxa
1.07

Club America creates 67% more chances

Season form · 162 home / 140 away

creates per match

Club America
1.89
Necaxa
1.26

allows per match

Club America
0.89
Necaxa
1.70

finishing

Club America+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Club America or draw
77%
Club America or Necaxa
77%
Draw or Necaxa
46%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+
30%
Necaxa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals
83%
Club America 2+ goals
53%
Club America 3+ goals
26%
Necaxa 1+ goals
66%
Necaxa 2+ goals
29%
Necaxa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)
71%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 162 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.89 + Necaxa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

Necaxa attack 1.26 + Club America defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Club America scores more
54%
level
23%
Necaxa scores more
23%

Club America at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Club America 2–0 Necaxa

Club America beat Necaxa 2-0 in Liga MX on January 31, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes in Mexico City.