Club America 1–3 Necaxa: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Club America

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Necaxa

H. Martín 5'

C. Calderón 90+6', 53'

B. Fernández 65'

3/6/2019

Liga MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Club America54%

×Draw23%

Necaxa23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AmericaExpected goals in this matchNecaxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.08

Club America

1.80

Necaxa

1.08

Club America creates 67% more chances

Season form · 160 home / 139 away

1.89

creates per match

1.27

0.89

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Club America

1.89

Necaxa

1.27

allows per match

Club America

0.89

Necaxa

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club America+0.00on par

Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

Necaxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Club America or draw

77%

Club America or Necaxa

77%

Draw or Necaxa

46%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+

30%

Necaxa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals

83%

Club America 2+ goals

54%

Club America 3+ goals

27%

Necaxa 1+ goals

66%

Necaxa 2+ goals

29%

Necaxa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)

70%

Necaxa (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 160 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.89 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.80

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Club America defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Club America scores more

54%

level

23%

Necaxa scores more

23%

Club America at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

C. Calderón

Necaxa · D

8.2

Match Events

5'

12'

31'

46'

53'

C. Calderón↳ R. González

54'

M. Uribe← R. Martínez

55'

Paul Aguilar

62'

J. Ménez← N. Benedetti

65'

B. Fernández↳ R. Contreras

66'

Brian Fernández

70'

O. Mares← R. Contreras

75'

83'

88'

88'

89'

90+6'

C. Calderón↳ F. Gallegos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubNecaxa

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots11

5Corners1

14Fouls23

Shots

19Total Shots11

9On Target6

8Off Target2

2Blocked3

9Inside Box5

10Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

416Total Passes299

324Accurate Passes215

78%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

14Fouls23

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides4