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Club America vs Lobos Buap — Liga MX 2018

Club America
Club America
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lobos Buap
Lobos Buap
2/24/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Club America62%
×Draw22%
Lobos Buap17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club America
1.94
Lobos Buap
0.89

Club America creates 118% more chances

Season form · 162 home / 17 away

creates per match

Club America
1.89
Lobos Buap
0.88

allows per match

Club America
0.89
Lobos Buap
2.00

finishing

Club America+0.00on par
Lobos Buap+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

Lobos Buap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Club America or draw
83%
Club America or Lobos Buap
78%
Draw or Lobos Buap
38%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+
37%
Lobos Buap wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals
86%
Club America 2+ goals
58%
Club America 3+ goals
30%
Lobos Buap 1+ goals
59%
Lobos Buap 2+ goals
22%
Lobos Buap 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)
79%
Lobos Buap (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 162 matches

Lobos Buap away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.89 + Lobos Buap defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Lobos Buap attack 0.88 + Club America defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Club America scores more
62%
level
22%
Lobos Buap scores more
17%

Club America at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Club America 3–0 Lobos Buap

Club America beat Lobos Buap 3-0 in Liga MX on February 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.