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Club Africain vs US Monastirienne — Cup 2019

Club Africain
Club Africainadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
US Monastirienne
US Monastirienne
6/20/2021CupCup · Semi-finalsStade Olympique d'El Menzah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Club Africain56%
×Draw23%
US Monastirienne22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Africain
1.83
US Monastirienne
1.05

Club Africain creates 74% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Club Africain
2.33
US Monastirienne
1.78

allows per match

Club Africain
0.33
US Monastirienne
1.33

finishing

Club Africain+0.00on par
US Monastirienne+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Africain ↓

US Monastirienne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Club Africain or draw
78%
Club Africain or US Monastirienne
77%
Draw or US Monastirienne
44%

Winning margin

Club Africain wins by 2+
32%
US Monastirienne wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Club Africain 1+ goals
84%
Club Africain 2+ goals
54%
Club Africain 3+ goals
28%
US Monastirienne 1+ goals
65%
US Monastirienne 2+ goals
28%
US Monastirienne 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Club Africain (draw refunded)
72%
US Monastirienne (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Africain at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

US Monastirienne away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Africain attack 2.33 + US Monastirienne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

US Monastirienne attack 1.78 + Club Africain defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Club Africain scores more
56%
level
23%
US Monastirienne scores more
22%

Club Africain at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Club Africain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Club Africain 0 – 0 US Monastirienne

Club Africain and US Monastirienne drew 0-0 in Cup on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Olympique d'El Menzah in Tunis.