Club Africain 1–1 M'saken: Result & Stats | Cup

Club Africain

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

M'saken

4/27/2025

Cup · Round of 16Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Club Africain71%

×Draw19%

M'saken10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AfricainExpected goals in this matchM'saken

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.63

Club Africain

2.08

M'saken

0.63

Club Africain creates 230% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.75

creates per match

1.00

0.25

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Club Africain

2.75

M'saken

1.00

allows per match

Club Africain

0.25

M'saken

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Africain+0.00on par

M'saken+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Africain ↓

M'saken →

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Club Africain or draw

90%

Club Africain or M'saken

81%

Draw or M'saken

29%

Winning margin

Club Africain wins by 2+

46%

M'saken wins by 2+

Team goals

Club Africain 1+ goals

87%

Club Africain 2+ goals

61%

Club Africain 3+ goals

34%

M'saken 1+ goals

47%

M'saken 2+ goals

13%

M'saken 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Club Africain (draw refunded)

88%

M'saken (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Club Africain at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

M'saken away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Club Africain attack 2.75 + M'saken defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.08

M'saken attack 1.00 + Club Africain defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Club Africain scores more

71%

level

19%

M'saken scores more

10%

Club Africain at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Club Africain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff