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Club Africain vs CS Hammam-Lif — Cup 2019

Club Africain
Club Africain
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CS Hammam-Lif
CS Hammam-Lif
W. Ben Yahia 82', 37'
Y. Chamakhi 58'
S. Meskini 56'
5/26/2021CupCup · 16th FinalsStade Olympique d'El Menzah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Club Africain62%
×Draw21%
CS Hammam-Lif17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Africain
2.00
CS Hammam-Lif
0.92

Club Africain creates 117% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Club Africain
2.33
CS Hammam-Lif
1.50

allows per match

Club Africain
0.33
CS Hammam-Lif
1.67

finishing

Club Africain+0.00on par
CS Hammam-Lif+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Africain ↓

CS Hammam-Lif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Club Africain or draw
83%
Club Africain or CS Hammam-Lif
79%
Draw or CS Hammam-Lif
38%

Winning margin

Club Africain wins by 2+
38%
CS Hammam-Lif wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Club Africain 1+ goals
86%
Club Africain 2+ goals
59%
Club Africain 3+ goals
32%
CS Hammam-Lif 1+ goals
60%
CS Hammam-Lif 2+ goals
23%
CS Hammam-Lif 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Club Africain (draw refunded)
79%
CS Hammam-Lif (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Africain at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

CS Hammam-Lif away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Africain attack 2.33 + CS Hammam-Lif defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

CS Hammam-Lif attack 1.50 + Club Africain defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Club Africain scores more
62%
level
21%
CS Hammam-Lif scores more
17%

Club Africain at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Club Africain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
W. Ben Yahia
56'
S. Meskini
58'
Y. Chamakhi
82'
W. Ben Yahia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Africain vs CS Hammam-Lif

Club Africain beat CS Hammam-Lif 3-1 in Cup on May 26, 2021.

Goals: W. Ben Yahia (37', 82'), S. Meskini (56'), Y. Chamakhi (58').

The match was played at Stade Olympique d'El Menzah in Tunis.