Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Clodiense vs Union Feltre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Clodiense
Clodiense
PST
13:00
Union Feltre
Union Feltre
5/3/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 38Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin (Chioggia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Clodiense39%
×Draw26%
Union Feltre35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clodiense
1.40
Union Feltre
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 13 away

creates per match

Clodiense
1.49
Union Feltre
2.00

allows per match

Clodiense
0.65
Union Feltre
1.31

finishing

Clodiense+0.00on par
Union Feltre+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clodiense ↓

Union Feltre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Clodiense or draw
65%
Clodiense or Union Feltre
74%
Draw or Union Feltre
61%

Winning margin

Clodiense wins by 2+
18%
Union Feltre wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Clodiense 1+ goals
75%
Clodiense 2+ goals
41%
Clodiense 3+ goals
17%
Union Feltre 1+ goals
73%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
38%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Clodiense (draw refunded)
52%
Union Feltre (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clodiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.65 · 82 matches

Union Feltre away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clodiense attack 1.49 + Union Feltre defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Union Feltre attack 2.00 + Clodiense defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Clodiense scores more
39%
level
26%
Union Feltre scores more
35%

Clodiense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Clodiense vs Union Feltre — Match Preview

Clodiense face Union Feltre on May 3, 2020 in this Serie D - Girone C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Clodiense host Union Feltre at Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin (Chioggia).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.