Clodiense 3–1 Portogruaro: Result & Stats

Clodiense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Portogruaro

2/12/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 23Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Clodiense56%

×Draw25%

Portogruaro19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClodienseExpected goals in this matchPortogruaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.80

Clodiense

1.60

Portogruaro

0.80

Clodiense creates 100% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 70 away

1.49

creates per match

0.96

0.65

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Clodiense

1.49

Portogruaro

0.96

allows per match

Clodiense

0.65

Portogruaro

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clodiense+0.00on par

Portogruaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clodiense ↓

Portogruaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Clodiense or draw

81%

Clodiense or Portogruaro

75%

Draw or Portogruaro

44%

Winning margin

Clodiense wins by 2+

30%

Portogruaro wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Clodiense 1+ goals

80%

Clodiense 2+ goals

47%

Clodiense 3+ goals

22%

Portogruaro 1+ goals

55%

Portogruaro 2+ goals

19%

Portogruaro 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Clodiense (draw refunded)

75%

Portogruaro (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clodiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.65 · 82 matches

Portogruaro away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clodiense attack 1.49 + Portogruaro defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Portogruaro attack 0.96 + Clodiense defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Clodiense scores more

56%

level

25%

Portogruaro scores more

19%

Clodiense at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff