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Clodiense vs Montebelluna — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Clodiense
Clodiense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montebelluna
Montebelluna
5/5/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 34Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Clodiense50%
×Draw26%
Montebelluna23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clodiense
1.48
Montebelluna
0.92

Clodiense creates 61% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 64 away

creates per match

Clodiense
1.49
Montebelluna
1.19

allows per match

Clodiense
0.65
Montebelluna
1.47

finishing

Clodiense+0.00on par
Montebelluna+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clodiense ↓

Montebelluna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Clodiense or draw
77%
Clodiense or Montebelluna
74%
Draw or Montebelluna
50%

Winning margin

Clodiense wins by 2+
25%
Montebelluna wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Clodiense 1+ goals
77%
Clodiense 2+ goals
43%
Clodiense 3+ goals
19%
Montebelluna 1+ goals
60%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
23%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Clodiense (draw refunded)
68%
Montebelluna (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clodiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.65 · 82 matches

Montebelluna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clodiense attack 1.49 + Montebelluna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Montebelluna attack 1.19 + Clodiense defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Clodiense scores more
50%
level
26%
Montebelluna scores more
23%

Clodiense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Clodiense 2–0 Montebelluna

Clodiense beat Montebelluna 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin in Chioggia.