Clodiense 0–0 Mestre: Result & Stats

Clodiense

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mestre

3/28/2026

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 29Aldo e Dino Ballarin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Clodiense50%

×Draw28%

Mestre22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClodienseExpected goals in this matchMestre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.79

Clodiense

1.34

Mestre

0.79

Clodiense creates 70% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 101 away

1.49

creates per match

0.94

0.65

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Clodiense

1.49

Mestre

0.94

allows per match

Clodiense

0.65

Mestre

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clodiense+0.00on par

Mestre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clodiense ↓

Mestre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Clodiense or draw

78%

Clodiense or Mestre

72%

Draw or Mestre

50%

Winning margin

Clodiense wins by 2+

24%

Mestre wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Clodiense 1+ goals

74%

Clodiense 2+ goals

39%

Clodiense 3+ goals

15%

Mestre 1+ goals

55%

Mestre 2+ goals

19%

Mestre 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Clodiense (draw refunded)

69%

Mestre (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clodiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.65 · 82 matches

Mestre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clodiense attack 1.49 + Mestre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Mestre attack 0.94 + Clodiense defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Clodiense scores more

50%

level

28%

Mestre scores more

22%

Clodiense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff