Clodiense 0–0 Luparense: Result & Stats

Clodiense

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Luparense

2/5/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 22Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Clodiense48%

×Draw27%

Luparense25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClodienseExpected goals in this matchLuparense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.93

Clodiense

1.40

Luparense

0.93

Clodiense creates 51% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 101 away

1.49

creates per match

1.21

0.65

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Clodiense

1.49

Luparense

1.21

allows per match

Clodiense

0.65

Luparense

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clodiense+0.00on par

Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clodiense ↓

Luparense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Clodiense or draw

75%

Clodiense or Luparense

73%

Draw or Luparense

52%

Winning margin

Clodiense wins by 2+

23%

Luparense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Clodiense 1+ goals

75%

Clodiense 2+ goals

41%

Clodiense 3+ goals

17%

Luparense 1+ goals

61%

Luparense 2+ goals

24%

Luparense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Clodiense (draw refunded)

66%

Luparense (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clodiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.65 · 82 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clodiense attack 1.49 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Luparense attack 1.21 + Clodiense defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Clodiense scores more

48%

level

27%

Luparense scores more

25%

Clodiense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff