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Clodiense vs Levico — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Clodiense
Clodiense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Levico
Levico
G. Aliu 90+12'
S. Padovan 80'
T. Gentile 34'
1/22/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 20Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Clodiense57%
×Draw26%
Levico17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clodiense
1.51
Levico
0.68

Clodiense creates 122% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 34 away

creates per match

Clodiense
1.49
Levico
0.71

allows per match

Clodiense
0.65
Levico
1.53

finishing

Clodiense+0.00on par
Levico+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clodiense ↓

Levico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Clodiense or draw
83%
Clodiense or Levico
74%
Draw or Levico
43%

Winning margin

Clodiense wins by 2+
30%
Levico wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Clodiense 1+ goals
78%
Clodiense 2+ goals
44%
Clodiense 3+ goals
19%
Levico 1+ goals
49%
Levico 2+ goals
15%
Levico 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Clodiense (draw refunded)
77%
Levico (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clodiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.65 · 82 matches

Levico away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clodiense attack 1.49 + Levico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.51

Levico attack 0.71 + Clodiense defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Clodiense scores more
57%
level
26%
Levico scores more
17%

Clodiense at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
T. Gentile
80'
S. Padovan
90+12'
G. Aliu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Clodiense 2–1 Levico

Clodiense beat Levico 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on January 22, 2023.

Goals: T. Gentile (34'), S. Padovan (80'), G. Aliu (90+12').

The match was played at Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin in Chioggia.