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Clodiense vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Clodiense
Clodiense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
12/3/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 14Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Clodiense44%
×Draw27%
Dolomiti Bellunesi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clodiense
1.36
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.06

Clodiense creates 28% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 70 away

creates per match

Clodiense
1.49
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Clodiense
0.65
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Clodiense+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clodiense ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Clodiense or draw
71%
Clodiense or Dolomiti Bellunesi
73%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
56%

Winning margin

Clodiense wins by 2+
20%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Clodiense 1+ goals
74%
Clodiense 2+ goals
39%
Clodiense 3+ goals
16%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
65%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
29%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Clodiense (draw refunded)
60%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clodiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.65 · 82 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clodiense attack 1.49 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Clodiense defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Clodiense scores more
44%
level
27%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
29%

Clodiense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Clodiense vs Dolomiti Bellunesi

Clodiense and Dolomiti Bellunesi drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin in Chioggia.