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Clodiense vs Delta Porto Tolle — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Clodiense
Clodiense
FT
2 – 0
Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
1/11/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 21Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin (Chioggia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Clodiense50%
×Draw27%
Delta Porto Tolle23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clodiense
1.43
Delta Porto Tolle
0.89

Clodiense creates 61% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 30 away

creates per match

Clodiense
1.49
Delta Porto Tolle
1.13

allows per match

Clodiense
0.65
Delta Porto Tolle
1.37

finishing

Clodiense+0.00on par
Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clodiense ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Clodiense or draw
77%
Clodiense or Delta Porto Tolle
73%
Draw or Delta Porto Tolle
50%

Winning margin

Clodiense wins by 2+
24%
Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Clodiense 1+ goals
76%
Clodiense 2+ goals
42%
Clodiense 3+ goals
17%
Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
59%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
22%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Clodiense (draw refunded)
68%
Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clodiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.65 · 82 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clodiense attack 1.49 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + Clodiense defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Clodiense scores more
50%
level
27%
Delta Porto Tolle scores more
23%

Clodiense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Clodiense 2–0 Delta Porto Tolle

Clodiense beat Delta Porto Tolle 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin (Chioggia).